Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific

The immediate impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Asia Pacific has been to confirm Chinese President Xi Jinping's perception that Washington is committed to low-cost, regime-changing Cold War with China to preserve its status as the world's preeminent superpower. Washington is willing to increase hard power defense spending modestly to tackle the Taiwan and South China Sea issues, but will not compete with China in an arms race, curtail productivity stifling government over-regulation and social spending or curb China's abusive state trading.

Emboldened by what Washington considers America's successes in the Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, American President Joe Biden plans to reinforce military spending with attitude management campaigns, moral suasion and coalitions of the willing including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — efforts to spark Chinese color revolution and regime change. Biden diplomatically calls his policy Cold Peace, but his actions bespeak Cold War.

Amid the power contestation among the United States, Russia and China, it is naïve in the contemporary world to suppose that the three major powers can permanently subjugate each other. Wise leadership requires satisficing for the attainable good rather than striving for the delusional best.