Predicting Fiscal Crises

ยท ยท ยท
ยท International Monetary Fund
แƒ”แƒšแƒฌแƒ˜แƒ’แƒœแƒ˜
42
แƒ’แƒ•แƒ”แƒ แƒ“แƒ˜
แƒฎแƒ”แƒšแƒกแƒแƒฌแƒงแƒแƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜

แƒแƒ› แƒ”แƒšแƒฌแƒ˜แƒ’แƒœแƒ˜แƒก แƒจแƒ”แƒกแƒแƒฎแƒ”แƒ‘

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.
This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce an...

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แƒšแƒ”แƒžแƒขแƒแƒžแƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜ แƒ“แƒ แƒ™แƒแƒ›แƒžแƒ˜แƒฃแƒขแƒ”แƒ แƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜
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แƒ”แƒšแƒฌแƒแƒ›แƒ™แƒ˜แƒ—แƒฎแƒ•แƒ”แƒšแƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜ แƒ“แƒ แƒกแƒฎแƒ•แƒ แƒ›แƒแƒฌแƒงแƒแƒ‘แƒ˜แƒšแƒแƒ‘แƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜
แƒ”แƒšแƒ”แƒฅแƒขแƒ แƒแƒœแƒฃแƒšแƒ˜ แƒ›แƒ”แƒšแƒœแƒ˜แƒก แƒ›แƒแƒฌแƒงแƒแƒ‘แƒ˜แƒšแƒแƒ‘แƒ”แƒ‘แƒ–แƒ” แƒฌแƒแƒกแƒแƒ™แƒ˜แƒ—แƒฎแƒแƒ“, แƒ แƒแƒ’แƒแƒ แƒ˜แƒชแƒแƒ Kobo eReaders, แƒ—แƒฅแƒ•แƒ”แƒœ แƒฃแƒœแƒ“แƒ แƒฉแƒแƒ›แƒแƒขแƒ•แƒ˜แƒ แƒ—แƒแƒ— แƒคแƒแƒ˜แƒšแƒ˜ แƒ“แƒ แƒ’แƒแƒ“แƒแƒ˜แƒขแƒแƒœแƒแƒ— แƒ˜แƒ’แƒ˜ แƒ—แƒฅแƒ•แƒ”แƒœแƒก แƒ›แƒแƒฌแƒงแƒแƒ‘แƒ˜แƒšแƒแƒ‘แƒแƒจแƒ˜. แƒ“แƒแƒฎแƒ›แƒแƒ แƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜แƒก แƒชแƒ”แƒœแƒขแƒ แƒ˜แƒก แƒ“แƒ”แƒขแƒแƒšแƒฃแƒ แƒ˜ แƒ˜แƒœแƒกแƒขแƒ แƒฃแƒฅแƒชแƒ˜แƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜แƒก แƒ›แƒ˜แƒฎแƒ”แƒ“แƒ•แƒ˜แƒ— แƒ’แƒแƒ“แƒแƒ˜แƒขแƒแƒœแƒ”แƒ— แƒคแƒแƒ˜แƒšแƒ”แƒ‘แƒ˜ แƒ›แƒฎแƒแƒ แƒ“แƒแƒญแƒ”แƒ แƒ˜แƒš แƒ”แƒšแƒฌแƒแƒ›แƒ™แƒ˜แƒ—แƒฎแƒ•แƒ”แƒšแƒ”แƒ‘แƒ–แƒ”.
แƒ›แƒแƒ˜แƒœแƒ˜แƒจแƒœแƒแƒก, แƒ แƒแƒ’แƒแƒ แƒช แƒแƒ แƒแƒกแƒแƒ—แƒแƒœแƒแƒ“แƒ

แƒ›แƒ”แƒขแƒ˜ แƒแƒ•แƒขแƒแƒ แƒ˜แƒกแƒ’แƒแƒœ Ms.Svetlana Cerovic

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