They must compete like businesses and serve the public under rules that control their prices but not their costs. The crisis is built into those rules.
Regulated to Fail follows the money behind the headlines. It examines how England's university system came to depend on frozen undergraduate fees, underfunded research and international students to make its finances work—and what happened when inflation, immigration policy and mounting regulation began to undermine those sources of support.
It explains why apparently obvious solutions are often anything but: why universities cannot simply recruit more students, cut unprofitable activities, collaborate to reduce costs, shrink gracefully or, in many cases, close. It also asks how a system designed around competition and consumer choice came to leave both universities and government with remarkably little room to manoeuvre.
Drawing on university accounts, sector data and the history of higher-education policy, Regulated to Fail avoids the familiar search for villains. Vice-chancellors, governments, regulators and universities have all made mistakes, but individually reasonable decisions have also accumulated into a system capable of producing collectively irrational results.
This is an account of how that system was built, why its financial problems are structural rather than temporary, and what universities and government can still do while there is time to choose.
Justin O’Brien is a psychologist, academic and AI consultant. He has spent more than three decades in academic research and teaching at London universities, following a PhD in visual perception at University College London.
His work has increasingly focused on the use of data and artificial intelligence to understand the operation and finances of higher education. His 2026 report The 2026 Reckoning analysed the financial position of 150 UK universities and has been downloaded more than 8,000 times.
Regulated to Fail develops that work into a broader examination of the financial, regulatory and policy structures that have shaped British higher education.