Predicting agricultural productivity under climate change using crop yield emulator
Braide, Tamunotonye M. · Thomas, Timothy S. · Robertson, Richard D.
Jul 2026 · IFPRI Modeling Systems Technical Paper Book 5 · International Food Policy Research Institute
Ebook
47
Pages
family_home
Eligible
info
About this ebook
This study develops a crop yield emulator as a computationally efficient alternative to the DSSAT process-based model, enabling fast, large-scale assessments of how temperature, rainfall, CO2, and nitrogen influence crop yields. Implemented using fixed-effects polynomial regression in R, the emulator was trained on DSSAT outputs and validated across seven globally important crops, maize, wheat (spring and winter), rice (indica and japonica), soybeans, sorghum, groundnuts, and potatoes. It showed high predictive accuracy (R2 > 0.90) for most crops, especially spring wheat, groundnut, and potato, and performed reliably under climate scenarios such as RCP7.0. The emulator captured key crop-specific responses, such as maize’s sensitivity to heat and nonlinear yield responses to nitrogen inputs. While its performance is slightly lower for maize and Indica rice compared to other crops, it remains a scalable and cost-effective tool for climate scenario analysis. This tool offers valuable support for agricultural decision-making and climate adaptation planning by enabling rapid, data-driven insights into yield outcomes under future conditions.
This study develops a crop yield emulator as a computationally efficient alternative to the DSSAT process-based model, enabling fast, large-scale assessments of how temperature, rainfall, CO2, and nitrogen influence crop yields. Implemented using fixed-effects polynomial regression in R, the emul...
Discover more
Rate this ebook
Tell us what you think.
Reading information
Smartphones and tablets
Install the Google Play Books app for Android and iPad/iPhone. It syncs automatically with your account and allows you to read online or offline wherever you are.
Laptops and computers
You can listen to audiobooks purchased on Google Play using your computer's web browser.
eReaders and other devices
To read on e-ink devices like Kobo eReaders, you'll need to download a file and transfer it to your device. Follow the detailed Help Center instructions to transfer the files to supported eReaders.
